Bitcoin has reclaimed its 200-day moving average but stalled near longer-term resistance. Six consecutive sessions of ETF inflows suggest genuine demand, although U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole message now present important tests.
MARKET INSIDER — Bitcoin climbed above $81,000 on Tuesday before retreating below $80,000, encountering resistance near its 50-week moving average after advancing roughly 25% in one week.
The pullback is the first significant technical test since Bitcoin broke above its 200-day moving average. Unlike rallies driven mainly by leverage, the latest move has been accompanied by six consecutive trading sessions of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows totaling approximately $2.26 billion.
The market’s next direction may depend on whether ETF demand continues as investors confront U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address.
Key Highlights
- Bitcoin reached approximately $81,265 before being rejected near its 50-week moving average around $81,100.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $337.6 million on August 24, extending a six-session inflow streak to about $2.26 billion.
- Falling Bitcoin-denominated futures open interest indicates that short covering and spot buying—not an expansion of leveraged long positions—have driven much of the rally.
Bitcoin encounters its next long-term resistance
Bitcoin reached an intraday high near $81,265 in Asian trading before falling back toward the upper-$79,000 range. Reuters and LSEG data placed the move at a three-month high and the strongest level since May, according to Reuters
The rejection occurred close to Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average, currently around $81,100. Moving-average values can vary slightly across exchanges and data providers, but the proximity suggests traders are treating the area as meaningful resistance.
The technical sequence remains constructive.
Bitcoin first established support around its 200-week moving average, near $63,000, during the recent correction. It then reclaimed the 200-day moving average during last week’s breakout and has now reached the 50-week average.
The 200-day recovery indicates that the medium-term trend has improved. The 50-week level represents a more demanding test of the longer-term structure following Bitcoin’s decline from its October 2025 record above $126,000.
A rejection on the first approach is not unusual, particularly after a rally from approximately $62,000 to above $81,000 in little more than a week. The more important question is whether Bitcoin consolidates beneath resistance or rapidly loses the levels recovered during the breakout.
A daily close above approximately $81,000 would strengthen the case for further gains. Failure to hold $78,000-$80,000 would increase the likelihood of a pullback toward the 200-day average and the previous breakout zone around $69,000-$72,000.
Six consecutive sessions of ETF inflows
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $337.6 million in net inflows on August 24, their sixth consecutive positive session, according to SoSoValue data.
The six-session total reached approximately $2.26 billion, including $1.92 billion during the week ending August 21—the strongest weekly result since October 2025.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust led Monday’s activity with about $209 million of net inflows, while Fidelity’s fund attracted approximately $105 million.
Total spot Bitcoin ETF assets reached $98.56 billion, reflecting both new investment and Bitcoin’s sharp price appreciation. Cumulative net inflows since the U.S. products launched stood near $54 billion. ETF flow data showed.
Spot Ether ETFs also received approximately $115.6 million on Monday, extending their own positive streak to six sessions.
ETF flows represent demand through regulated investment vehicles, but they should not automatically be described entirely as institutional buying. ETF holders can include financial advisers, hedge funds, corporations and individual investors.
Nevertheless, sustained ETF creation requires underlying Bitcoin purchases and is therefore more durable than buying caused solely by forced short liquidations.
Spot demand distinguishes the rally from a short squeeze
Approximately $3 billion in short positions were liquidated during Bitcoin’s initial breakout, creating forced buying as bearish traders closed positions.
That mechanism can produce an unusually rapid price increase. It cannot sustain a rally indefinitely because the buying ends after the short positions have been removed.
ETF inflows offer a more important confirmation signal. Six consecutive positive sessions indicate that investors continued allocating capital after the first wave of liquidations had already pushed Bitcoin substantially higher.
Spot-market indicators have also improved. Glassnode data cited in market reports showed stronger aggressive buying and deeper liquidity as Bitcoin moved from the low-$60,000 range toward $80,000.
However, the evidence supports a combination of spot demand and short covering—not a purely spot-driven rally.
Falling open interest reduces leverage risk
Bitcoin-denominated futures open interest fell even while the asset’s price increased sharply.
Market data showed open interest declining from approximately 762,000 BTC on August 18 to around 715,000 BTC by August 24. Updated estimates placed it still lower on August 25, although figures vary depending on the exchanges and contract types included.
Falling open interest during a rising market generally indicates that positions are being closed rather than new leveraged trades being opened. In this case, it is consistent with short positions being liquidated or voluntarily covered.
Perpetual-futures funding rates remained positive but were not at levels normally associated with extreme speculative positioning.
This makes the market structure healthier than one in which price and leveraged open interest rise together. With fewer crowded long positions, there is less potential for a modest decline to trigger cascading liquidations.
It does not remove downside risk. Spot investors and ETF holders can still sell, while thin liquidity can amplify price movements in either direction.
Why the dollar has helped Bitcoin
The rally has also benefited from renewed concerns about U.S. fiscal policy and currency debasement.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement of expanded purchases of longer-dated government bonds contributed to lower yields and a weaker dollar. Some investors interpreted the intervention as evidence that authorities may attempt to contain borrowing costs despite persistent inflation and large fiscal deficits.
Bitcoin and gold both benefited from demand for assets perceived as alternatives to fiat currencies.
Bitcoin has gained approximately 28% in August and about 16% since Trump called for clearer cryptocurrency regulation. Regulatory developments—including the SEC’s proposed token-offering exemptions—have strengthened sentiment, although they do not directly change Bitcoin’s legal treatment or cash flows.
Macro events provide the next test
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish July personal-consumption-expenditures inflation and revised second-quarter GDP data on Wednesday, August 26.
Core PCE is expected to have increased approximately 0.2% from June, with annual inflation remaining around 3.2%. A hotter result could lift Treasury yields and strengthen the dollar, creating pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
A softer reading would reinforce the debasement and monetary-easing narrative supporting the rally.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday, August 28. Investors will look for guidance on inflation, interest rates, the Fed’s balance sheet and its independence from the Trump administration, Reuters reported.
ETF data may react with a delay because U.S. funds report after the trading session. Several additional positive days following the macro announcements would provide stronger evidence that investors are making structural allocations rather than chasing short-term momentum.
What investors should watch
The first level is the 50-week moving average around $81,000. Bitcoin needs to close convincingly above it and hold the level on a retest before the breakout can be considered confirmed.
The second indicator is ETF demand. Continued inflows would support the argument that spot capital is absorbing profit-taking above $80,000. Flat or negative flows would suggest buyers are becoming more price-sensitive.
The third is leverage. A rapid increase in open interest and funding rates while Bitcoin struggles below resistance would weaken the market structure and increase liquidation risk.
Bitcoin’s recovery is technically and structurally stronger than a short squeeze alone would imply. But after such a rapid advance, the market has reached a point where fresh demand—not the removal of bearish positions—must carry the next stage.
