Following its sharpest weekly drop in months, Wall Street analysts warn gold prices could fall further this week, even as retail investors hold on to cautious optimism.
(October 27, 2025) — After a nine-week winning streak that sent gold to historic highs, the precious metal stumbled badly last week — and analysts believe the correction may not be over yet.
Spot gold closed Friday at US$4,111 per ounce, down nearly US$150 from the start of the week, as investors rushed to lock in profits amid shifting expectations for central bank policies and a stronger U.S. dollar.
According to the latest Kitco News survey, the majority of Wall Street analysts expect gold prices to decline or move sideways this week, reflecting a cooling sentiment after months of relentless gains. Out of 17 experts surveyed, only three forecast a rebound. About 35% expect prices to fall, while 47% see them consolidating.
Retail investors, however, remain somewhat more upbeat: in an online poll of 274 traders, 53% predicted prices would rise, suggesting that individual investors still view recent dips as buying opportunities.
Analysts divided over what comes next
Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, warned that gold’s decline could persist for several weeks — drawing parallels to 2020, when prices fell for 30 consecutive weeks after a major rally.
Adrian Day, chairman of Adrian Day Asset Management, offered a milder outlook, saying the market might be nearing a short-term bottom: “Gold could weaken slightly more before forming a new base,” he noted.
Others, like Neil Welsh of Britannia Global Markets, took a neutral stance, describing the recent pullback as “a healthy pause rather than a full trend reversal.”
Meanwhile, Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International, expects a rebound ahead, citing softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data and the growing likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year. “The recent correction was long overdue,” he said, “and with macro conditions turning supportive, gold could return to an upward path.”
However, Sean Lusk of Walsh Trading cautioned that volatility may increase, calling the market “increasingly difficult to predict.” He projected a potential downside target near US$3,690 per ounce — a 40% correction — but noted that such a move would still be within a broader long-term uptrend. Conversely, if buying momentum returns, prices could surge toward US$4,589 per ounce, representing a 70% gain in futures for delivery in late 2025 or early 2026.
Policy decisions in focus
With the U.S. government still partially shut down, few major economic data releases are expected this week. Instead, global attention will turn to a series of central bank meetings, including those of the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on October 29, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on October 30.
Their decisions on interest rates and monetary policy could determine whether gold finds support — or faces another leg down.
Gold has been one of the standout assets of 2025, soaring more than US$1,100 per ounce since August amid global economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical risk. But with markets now recalibrating expectations for rate cuts and inflation, analysts say the metal may enter a period of consolidation before setting a new direction heading into 2026.
