Investors debate whether crypto’s four-year pattern is intact—or breaking down
MARKET INSIDER – Bitcoin’s latest rebound has already lost steam. After briefly reclaiming the $70,000 level earlier this week, the world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped back toward $67,000 on Wednesday, underscoring the fragile sentiment gripping digital asset markets.
As of early U.S. trading, bitcoin hovered around $66,975—nearly 47% below its October record high above $126,000. The cryptocurrency has struggled to build sustained momentum since tumbling below $70,000 on February 5, when a wave of forced liquidations accelerated losses and briefly pushed prices toward the key $60,000 threshold.
The sell-off was amplified by cascading liquidations—automatic closures of leveraged positions when price triggers are hit—exacerbating downside pressure. While those liquidations have slowed, bitcoin remains locked in a volatile range between roughly $66,000 and $72,000. Its price action continues to track U.S. technology stocks closely, reflecting crypto’s growing correlation with broader risk assets.
Macro uncertainty is adding another layer of caution. Investors are assessing potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Any change in interest rate expectations could materially affect liquidity conditions—a critical driver for speculative assets like bitcoin.
Exchange-traded fund flows have also influenced recent swings. Outflows from bitcoin ETFs earlier this month added pressure, though the past three sessions have recorded modest net inflows, offering some stabilization. ETF issuers now represent a significant portion of institutional bitcoin exposure, magnifying the impact of capital flows on spot prices.
Beyond the near-term volatility, market participants are refocusing on bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle. The pattern, tied to the “halving” event that reduces mining rewards and tightens supply every four years, has traditionally led to rallies followed by sharp corrections. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, fueling debate about whether the current downturn marks a typical post-peak retracement or a structural shift.
Some analysts argue the cycle remains intact. Steven McClurg of Canary Capital expects 2026 to represent the bearish leg of the cycle, with potential lows near $50,000 before a possible recovery later in the year. Similarly, Markus Thielen of 10X Research has projected a move toward the same level.
For global investors, the takeaway is sobering. Bitcoin’s halving narrative may still matter, but liquidity, ETF flows, and macro policy now play an equally powerful role. Whether $60,000 holds as a durable floor—or proves to be just another waypoint on the way down—will likely depend less on crypto’s internal mechanics and more on the broader risk appetite of global markets in the months ahead.
