LONDON—The global refined copper market is now projected to flip into a supply deficit in 2026, driven primarily by slower-than-anticipated production growth, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).
The industry body has drastically revised its forecast, stating the market is expected to swing to a 150,000 metric ton deficit in 2026. This is a significant reversal from the 209,000 ton surplus the ICSG had previously forecast for that year, signaling tighter supply conditions ahead.
The revised outlook comes amidst a period of volatility, with copper prices briefly hitting a 16-month peak recently. This price strength was spurred by worries over potential supply constraints following a series of mine disruptions in major producing nations, including Indonesia, Chile, and Congo.
Production Revisions Tighten 2025 Outlook
These recent mine incidents have led the ICSG to sharply cut its global mine production growth forecast for 2025 to just 1.4%, down from the 2.3% growth previously expected in April.
The near-term impact of these issues will be felt immediately: the refined copper market surplus for 2025 is now expected to narrow to 178,000 tons, down from the 289,000 tons initially forecast.
Looking to 2026, the overall mine output is projected to rebound, rising by 2.3% due to the ramp-up of new or expanded capacity globally, improved output from Chile, Peru, and Zambia, and a recovery of mining operations in Indonesia.
However, growth in refined production is expected to slow significantly to 0.9% in 2026, down from 3.4% in 2025. This deceleration is attributed to constrained availability of copper concentrates, which is expected to partially offset higher production from scrap metal.
Usage Growth Decelerates
While supply dynamics drive the forecast deficit, the ICSG also projects a moderate slowdown in global consumption growth.
The industry group expects global refined copper usage to rise by 2.1% to 28.7 million tons in 2026, a slower pace compared to the 3% growth seen in 2025. This deceleration is primarily linked to slowing consumption growth in China, which alone accounts for a dominant 58% of the world’s refined copper usage.
The ICSG stated that Asia will remain the primary engine of global growth. Conversely, demand in other key copper-using regions, most notably the European Union and Japan, is expected to remain subdued.
