Skyrocketing chip prices push earnings past 2018 peak—and reshape global tech economics
The artificial intelligence boom is rewriting the profit playbook for the semiconductor industry, and Samsung Electronicsis emerging as one of its biggest winners. The world’s largest memory chipmaker said it expects operating profit to nearly triple in the final quarter of last year, driven by an unprecedented surge in memory prices as AI demand overwhelms supply.
In preliminary guidance released Thursday, Samsung estimated fourth-quarter operating profit of around 20 trillion won ($15 billion), with consolidated revenue reaching roughly 93 trillion won. If confirmed, the result would eclipse the company’s long-standing quarterly profit record of 17.6 trillion won set in 2018—marking a decisive break from the downcycle that battered chipmakers only a year earlier.
The catalyst is AI. Explosive demand for advanced memory used in data centers and AI accelerators—particularly from customers such as Nvidia—has pushed memory prices sharply higher. As suppliers prioritize capacity for high-margin AI workloads, shortages have spilled into the broader market, tightening supply for chips used in PCs, smartphones, and consumer electronics.
According to Counterpoint Research, the memory industry has entered a “hyper-bull” phase that surpasses even the historic 2018 peak. Memory prices jumped 40–50% in the final quarter of 2025, with similar gains expected in early 2026 and another roughly 20% increase projected in the second quarter. Supplier leverage, analysts say, is at an all-time high as AI and server demand shows no sign of slowing.
For memory giants, the pricing power is transformative. Samsung’s rivals SK Hynix and Micron Technology are also benefiting from the upswing, but Samsung’s scale positions it to capture outsized gains as the cycle matures. Over the past 12 months, Samsung shares have surged more than 145%, reflecting investor confidence that the AI-driven demand shock is structural, not cyclical.
Still, competition remains intense at the cutting edge. Samsung continues to trail SK Hynix in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a critical component for AI processors. Closing that gap—and expanding HBM capacity—will be a central strategic priority in 2026 as chipmakers race to secure long-term supply agreements with hyperscalers and AI leaders.
Samsung is set to release its audited earnings and host its quarterly call later this month, which investors will scrutinize for guidance on capacity expansion and pricing sustainability. The broader implication is already clear: AI has flipped the memory market from commodity to choke point. If the current supercycle holds, Samsung’s record-breaking quarter may be less a peak than a preview of a new profit era for the semiconductor industry.
