MARKET INSIDER – Vietnam, once an underdeveloped economy, has rapidly transformed, now ranking among the top 35 economies globally with a trade volume in the world’s top 20. It is a crucial link in 16 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), connecting it with 60 key economies regionally and worldwide. International investors and market readers are now asking: When will Vietnam join the group of the world’s 32 largest economies, and what are its longer-term ambitions?
A Trajectory of Rapid Growth
Vietnam’s economic journey highlights its exponential growth. Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that it took Vietnam 37 years (from 1986 to 2023, based on the growth calculation $43B to $400B) for its GDP to increase tenfold, reaching over $400 billion from approximately $43 billion in 1986.
The acceleration in recent years is even more striking. It took Vietnam 23 years (1986 to 2008) to first cross the $100 billion GDP mark, reaching $125 billion by 2008. Subsequently, it only took 15 years (2008 to 2023) to increase its GDP from $100 billion to over $400 billion. The country’s GDP reached $408 billion in 2022and is projected to hit $476 billion in 2024.
This rapid ascent hasn’t gone unnoticed. In a recent Bangkok Post article, Thai Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul acknowledged that Thailand has fallen behind Vietnam—a development he called his “worst nightmare.” He noted that he “never imagined Thailand would grow slower than other Indochina countries.” Thailand’s economy, which averaged 7% growth before 1997, slowed to 3% afterward, failing to achieve a 2% average since 2012, mainly due to low investment (investment as a percentage of GDP dropped from 40% before 1997 to just 23% afterward).
Nearing the Top 32 and Eying the Top 30 by 2030
Vietnam is projected to soon enter the group of the world’s 32 largest economies, with analysts also predicting it will surpass a key regional rival:
- 2025 Projections: Vietnamese projections estimate the national economy will reach over $510 billion in 2025, ranking 32nd globally and 4th in ASEAN. However, IMF estimates are slightly more conservative, projecting a GDP of approximately $491 billion for 2025, ranking 34th globally and 5th in ASEAN.
- The 2029 Crossover: Crucially, IMF experts project that by 2029, Vietnam’s GDP, expected to reach $666.5 billion, will officially surpass Thailand’s (projected at approximately $616 billion). This would make Vietnam the 4th largest economy in Southeast Asia (behind Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore) and the 32nd largest globally.
Looking further ahead, Vietnam has set an ambitious official target:
- Goal 2030: The government aims for Vietnam to become a developing country with modern industry and high-middle income status by 2030, with a GDP size placing it among the world’s top 30 economies and the 3rd largest in ASEAN.
A Blueprint for Sustainable High Growth
To achieve these goals, Vietnam’s strategy, outlined in the National Master Plan for 2021-2030 with a vision to 2050, focuses on high-speed, sustainable development:
Economic & Productivity Targets (2021–2030)
| Metric | Target |
| Average GDP Growth | Over 8.0% per year |
| GDP Per Capita (Current Prices) | Approximately $8,500 by 2030 |
| TFP Contribution to Growth | Over 55% |
| Average Social Labor Productivity Growth | Approximately 7% per year (over 8.5% for 2026–2030) |
The economic structure is planned to shift significantly, with the service sector accounting for over 50% of GDP, industry and construction over 40%, and agriculture, forestry, and fishery under 10%. Furthermore, the digital economy is targeted to reach approximately 30% of GDP.
Key Development Pillars
- New Growth Model: The country is adopting a new growth model driven primarily by science, technology, innovation, and digital transformation.
- Infrastructure Focus: A core task is forming the national infrastructure framework, concentrating on transportation, urban, rural, energy, digital, and social infrastructure.
- Economic Corridors: Vietnam plans to harness its geographical advantages by developing two key growth engines in the North (linked to Hanoi) and the South (linked to Ho Chi Minh City). It will also develop key North-South and East-West economic corridors, connecting major ports, airports, and border gates, and developing coastal economic belts.
- Regional Integration: Efforts will be made to strengthen regional linkages and form economic, financial, and special administrative-economic centers with special, breakthrough policies to enhance international competitiveness.
