Washington’s surprise move averts an early-2026 shock—but signals that strategic risk still looms
The United States has unexpectedly delayed a planned tariff hike of up to 50% on key Vietnamese wood products, offering temporary relief to exporters whose shipments to the US totaled nearly $10 billion in the first nine months of 2025. The decision removes an immediate year-end shock for global supply chains—but also makes clear that the trade risk has been deferred, not defused.
On December 31, 2025, the United States announced it would postpone higher tariffs on finished wood products—such as upholstered chairs, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom cabinets—from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027. The move follows Proclamation No. 10976, issued in September, which imposed tariffs of 10% on raw wood and 25% on processed products, with plans to raise them sharply to 30% and 50% respectively. Those higher rates are now on hold for one more year, as Washington cited the need to “create room for ongoing trade negotiations.”
Crucially, this is not a rollback of tariffs, but a pause in escalation. Vietnamese wood exports to the US will continue to face the existing 10–25% duties throughout 2026. For global investors and multinational buyers, the message is familiar: policy risk remains embedded, but timing has shifted. The delay allows importers to keep orders flowing, stabilize pricing, and avoid abrupt contract disruptions at the start of the year.
The stakes are significant. According to US trade data, Vietnam exported around $10 billion worth of furniture and wood products to the US in the first nine months of 2025, up 10% year on year and accounting for roughly 21% of total US imports in this category. That scale makes Vietnam not just a supplier of convenience, but a structural pillar in the US home-furnishings supply chain.
For Vietnamese manufacturers, however, dependence on the US market remains a strategic vulnerability. At Phu Tai Joint Stock Company (PTB), the US contributes 60–70% of wood-segment revenue, with kitchen cabinets and bathroom furniture—precisely the products targeted for the steepest tariff increases—at the core of its portfolio. The company has warned that a full 50% tariff could slow or cancel new orders. While its order book remains full through early 2026, management has acknowledged that diversifying away from the US will take time.
By contrast, An Cuong Wood Joint Stock Company (ACG) also derives about 70% of export revenue from the US, but exports represent a smaller share of its overall business, which is anchored in the domestic market. As a result, future tariff shocks—if implemented—are expected to have a more contained financial impact.
From a global perspective, 2026 now looks like a year of “relative stability, not security” for Vietnam’s wood industry. The postponement buys time for negotiation, supply-chain adjustment, and market diversification—but it also reinforces a broader trend: trade policy has become a rolling variable rather than a fixed rule. For businesses and investors alike, the real question is not whether tariffs return in 2027, but whether Vietnam can use this window to reduce exposure before the clock runs out.
