Market Insider – The Vietnamese stock market appears set to resume its long-term uptrend starting around mid-October, following a recent period of necessary technical consolidation, according to analysis from Yuanta Securities. Market observations indicate that the recent sideways trend is characteristic of a technical correction, with the overarching long-term outlook remaining decidedly bullish.
September Pullback and Necessary Correction
The benchmark VN-Index concluded September 2025 at 1,661.70 points, reflecting a 1.2% decline compared to August. This pullback occurred after a strong run of four consecutive months of gains. Concurrently, trading liquidity also saw a decline compared to the previous month, signaling that investors are adopting a more cautious approach following the extended rally. While historical data shows that October is often a down month, carrying a 54% probability of a decline, Yuanta Securities forecasts that the market can reverse course and return to an upward trajectory by the middle of October 2025. The current consolidation is considered a healthy correction required to solidify the foundation for the enduring long-term uptrend. Key support zones for the VN-Index during this adjustment period are identified at 1,600 points and a lower, critical level at 1,530 points.
Long-Term Catalysts Fueling Optimism
Despite the near-term volatility, the prevailing long-term sentiment remains optimistic, bolstered by significant macroeconomic and structural catalysts. Analysts expect the eventual phase of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, combined with the ongoing narrative of a potential upgrade for the Vietnamese stock market status, to be crucial factors supporting positive investor psychology. Furthermore, a sustained low domestic interest rate environment is seen as a solid platform that will help maintain high market liquidity throughout the entirety of 2025.
Investment Strategy and Preferred Sectors
For investors, the recommended strategy for October is to continue holding a high equity weighting. It is advised to take advantage of the market correction expected in the first half of the month to increase stock holdings, particularly around the identified support levels. Yuanta Securities highlights several key sectors for portfolio focus. The Banking sector in Vietnam is consistently prioritized in investment portfolios due to its appealing valuations and the anticipated benefits stemming from the market upgrade story. Additionally, when considering the correlation between current valuations and growth prospects, sectors such as Real Estate, Tourism and Entertainment, Retail, and Food Production are also deemed suitable choices for the month of October.
