HANOI – The Vietnamese market, a hotspot for emerging market investment, is projected to see a slowdown in its overall profit growth for the third quarter of 2025. Following a robust 31.5% year-on-year (YoY) increase in Q2 2025—driven by significant contributions from major companies like VIC, NVL, VGI, HHS, HVN, PGV, and VIX—Market Insider forecasts Q3 profit growth to halve, reaching approximately 14% YoY. This moderation is largely attributed to the Real Estate sector no longer benefiting from the “high base effect” of Q3 2024, which had seen substantial, non-recurring profits.
Economic Momentum and Policy Drivers
Despite the projected profit slowdown, Vietnam remains highly focused on economic expansion. The country has set an ambitious GDP growth target of at least 8% for 2025.
The primary engine for achieving this goal is the acceleration of public investment disbursement. A key policy highlight is the implementation of a two-level local government administration system, effective July 1, 2025. This structural change is expected to resolve administrative bottlenecks and significantly speed up local public investment, providing a crucial boost to overall economic activity.
Securities Firms’ Proprietary Trading: A Key Profit Driver
For international investors evaluating the financial sector, understanding the performance of securities firms’ proprietary trading (tự doanh) is essential. This activity, where a securities firm buys and sells securities for its own account to profit from price differentials, is a major source of revenue diversification.
| Purpose | Description |
| Profit Generation | Primary goal: Earning returns from investing in securities and price differences. |
| Market Liquidity | Active participation increases market liquidity and trading volume. |
| Revenue Diversification | Supplements income from brokerage and consulting services. |
| Regulation & Practice | Key Points |
| Proprietary Funding | Firms use their own capital and separate trading accounts. |
| Trade Identifier | Proprietary trading orders are often marked “P” for distinction. |
| Regulatory Compliance | Firms must meet minimum chartered capital requirements and adhere to regulations (e.g., Circular 121/2020/TT-BTC). |
| Client Priority | Firms must execute client orders before their own proprietary trades. |
| Market Integrity | Prohibition on profiting from insider information or trading the same securities as clients if the client’s order significantly impacts the price. |
Q3 2025 Proprietary Trading Profit Forecast
Market Insider’s proprietary trading profit forecast (primarily covering Stocks and Bonds) for the largest listed securities firms in Q3 2025 shows a mixed but generally strong outlook, with one firm standing out significantly:
| Rank | Securities Firm | Projected Proprietary Trading Profit (Billion VND) |
| 1 | VIX | +2,991 |
| 2 | SHS | +872 |
| 3 | CTS | +448 |
| 4 | SSI | +430 |
| 5 | VND | +426 |
| 6 | VDS | +269 |
| 7 | HCM | +252 |
| 8 | BSI | +149 |
| 9 | MBS | +101 |
| 10 | VCI | +6.8 |
| 11 | FTS | -39 |
VIX leads the pack by a substantial margin, with a projected proprietary trading profit of nearly VND 3 trillion(VND 2,991 billion). This performance suggests significant successful trading strategies or large asset allocations within their proprietary portfolio.
Conversely, FTS is the only firm on this list projected to record a loss (-VND 39 billion) from this activity.
The outlook suggests that while overall market profit growth may decelerate, the securities firms’ proprietary desks are expected to remain major contributors to their bottom lines, with substantial earnings concentrated among the top-performing names. International investors should continue to monitor public investment policy implementation and the proprietary trading results of these key financial players for insights into the health and direction of the Vietnamese capital market.
