According to a newly released research flash-note by Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation (HSC), shares of Vingroup (VIC – HSX) are trading far above their underlying fundamental value, prompting the brokerage to reaffirm a Sell recommendation with a fair value of VND62,500 per share.
As of December 24, 2025, VIC closed at approximately VND169,800 per share, implying a downside of more than 63% relative to HSC’s RNAV-based valuation. HSC emphasizes that the gap between market price and intrinsic value has widened to levels rarely seen in the stock’s trading history.
A recent strategic development attracting market attention was Vingroup’s announcement on December 25, 2025, that it would withdraw from its registration to invest in Vietnam’s North–South High-Speed Railway project. Instead, the group plans to focus its resources on other large-scale infrastructure initiatives, including the Olympic Sports Urban Area in Hanoi, the national-level Trong Dong Stadium, and selected urban metro lines in Hanoi, Quang Ninh, and Ho Chi Minh City.
HSC notes that this decision does not affect its valuation assumptions, as the railway project had never been incorporated into its RNAV model or target price due to the absence of a formal investment license. The project, previously registered through VinSpeed—an entity in which Vingroup holds a 10% stake—was estimated to require total capital of roughly VND1,562 trillion (USD63.5 billion) and relied heavily on zero-interest state loans with extended repayment horizons. From HSC’s perspective, the withdrawal reduces execution and financing risk rather than creating incremental shareholder value.
At the core of HSC’s cautious stance is its RNAV-based valuation framework, commonly used for diversified conglomerates with substantial real estate and infrastructure assets. Under this approach, HSC calculates a fair value of VND62,500 per share, meaning that VIC is currently trading at a 172% premium to updated RNAV. This stands in stark contrast to the company’s three-year historical average, during which the stock typically traded at an approximate 19% discount to RNAV.
The brokerage highlights that VIC’s share price has surged more than 110% over the past three months, a rally that has significantly outpaced any meaningful improvement in fundamentals, earnings visibility, or asset revaluation. Financial metrics further reinforce HSC’s concerns, with forward P/E ratios elevated relative to historical norms, EV/EBITDA multiples expanding amid challenging earnings normalization, and net gearing remaining high due to the group’s capital-intensive business model.
While acknowledging Vingroup’s strong and diversified asset base across real estate, retail, industry, and infrastructure, HSC believes the current market price embeds overly optimistic assumptions about long-term growth, the speed of asset monetization, and balance-sheet normalization. In this context, the brokerage argues that recent price action reflects sentiment and momentum rather than changes in intrinsic value.
HSC therefore reiterates its Sell recommendation, maintaining a target price of VND62,500 per share. The firm cautions that with VIC trading far above RNAV and historical valuation benchmarks, the risk–reward profile has become increasingly asymmetric, particularly for new investors.
From a valuation-driven perspective, HSC concludes that Vingroup’s current market price is difficult to justify on fundamentals alone. Although the strategic pivot away from the North–South High-Speed Railway project helps reduce execution risk, it does not materially alter intrinsic value. Investors, HSC advises, should remain disciplined, anchor decisions on RNAV-based valuation, and avoid extrapolating short-term momentum into long-term expectations.
