Brent drops below $63, energy stocks slide, and analysts warn the draft deal—seen as heavily favorable to Russia—faces slim chances of success
MARKET INSIDER – Oil prices fell sharply on Friday as global energy markets reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed Ukraine peace plan—a leaked framework that would require Kyiv to surrender Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, scale down its military, and abandon its NATO ambitions. The geopolitical shock added fresh pressure to a market already on edge from sanctions, a strong dollar, and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Brent crude slipped 0.9% to $62.81 a barrel, while WTI fell 1.2% to $58.33, extending Thursday’s declines. Europe’s Stoxx Oil & Gas index sank 2% in morning trading. Majors like Shell and BP dropped around 1.2%, Equinor lost 2%, and Siemens Energy plunged nearly 7%. U.S. energy giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron were the lone bright spots, eking out modest gains in premarket trading.
The selloff comes as investors scrutinize the reported U.S.–Russia draft deal—assembled by American and Russian envoys without Ukrainian participation. The document outlines sweeping concessions for Kyiv while promising “reliable” security guarantees and capping Ukraine’s armed forces at 600,000 personnel. Analysts say such terms tilt heavily toward Moscow and are unlikely to be accepted by Ukraine, dampening market expectations of a swift geopolitical resolution.
“I really don’t think it can fly,” said Guntram Wolff of the Brussels think tank Bruegel. “The plan essentially asks Ukraine to give up a third of its military personnel and major territorial claims. That is not a credible basis for peace.”
At the same time, traders are monitoring the start of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, a stronger dollar, and the Fed’s pending rate decision. Saxo Bank strategists said Brent is now trading near its key support zone around $62.34, with $60 as the next critical level if bearish momentum accelerates.
With geopolitics, sanctions, and monetary policy all converging, the energy market enters a precarious phase. Oil traders hoping for clarity from the peace plan instead find themselves facing deeper uncertainty—and a growing risk that volatility, not stability, will define the weeks ahead.
