From oil giant to critical minerals hub, the kingdom is positioning for long-term geopolitical power
MARKET INSIDER – Saudi Arabia says it is sitting on mineral reserves worth $2.5 trillion—and in a world scrambling for rare earths, that claim is reshaping global strategic calculations. As demand for critical minerals surges to fuel clean energy, artificial intelligence, and advanced defense systems, the kingdom is signaling it wants a seat at the table long dominated by China.
Rare earths and critical minerals are increasingly viewed as the new oil. According to the International Energy Agency, China controls more than 90% of global refined rare earth output and over 60% of mining production, giving Beijing immense leverage over supply chains essential to electric vehicles, wind turbines, semiconductors, and military hardware. This concentration has alarmed Western governments—anxiety underscored this week when Donald Trump referenced rare earth access in discussions linked to Greenland.
Saudi Arabia now sees an opening. Speaking at the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh, analysts and policymakers highlighted how the kingdom is rapidly expanding its mining ambitions to reduce dependence on oil and enhance geopolitical influence. Saudi authorities say their reserves include gold, copper, zinc, lithium, and rare earth elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—materials critical for everything from EV motors to high-speed computing. The government has increased its exploratory mining budget by nearly 600% between 2021 and 2025 and accelerated licensing for both domestic and international miners.
Execution, however, will take time. Mining and processing are capital-intensive, multi-decade endeavors. Saudi Arabia is responding by cutting red tape, lowering taxes, and committing state capital at scale. State-owned miner Maaden has pledged $110 billion over the next decade to build out metals and mining capacity through global partnerships, acknowledging that technology and expertise must be imported to compete with established players like Australia and Canada.
Beyond extraction, Saudi Arabia is targeting the most strategic choke point: processing. With abundant, low-cost energy and deep industrial expertise from oil champion Aramco, the kingdom aims to become a regional refining hub for minerals mined across Africa and Central Asia. This has attracted Washington’s attention. The US has historically shipped rare earth materials to China for processing—a vulnerability exposed after Beijing tightened export controls. In response, US-based MP Materials, backed by the Pentagon, has partnered with Maaden and the US Department of Defense to develop a new rare earths refinery in Saudi Arabia.
The strategy is not without risks. Environmental concerns, regional instability, and complex diplomatic ties with mineral-rich nations could slow progress. Yet analysts argue the real payoff is not short-term returns, but long-term leverage. By embedding itself into global critical mineral supply chains, Saudi Arabia is positioning to become a pivotal power broker in the next phase of the energy and technology transition.
The deeper story is this: oil once defined geopolitical influence in the 20th century. In the 21st, rare earths and critical minerals may play the same role—and Saudi Arabia is betting early that whoever controls the processing nodes will shape the balance of power for decades to come.
