HANOI, Vietnam’s stock market is soaring, shattering records and signaling a major turning point after FTSE Russell officially upgraded the country to a Secondary Emerging Market on October 8th. Despite global financial volatility, the Vietnamese market has demonstrated explosive growth, with the benchmark VN-Index closing at a new all-time high above 1,765 points and, more significantly, the VN30 Index crossing the monumental 2,000-point threshold for the first time, closing above 2,012 points.
Blue-Chip Surge Drives Record-Breaking Rally
The recent market surge has been overwhelmingly led by large-cap stocks (blue chips), with key drivers including VIC, TCB, VJC, HDB, and VRE. The VN30 index—which tracks the 30 largest and most liquid stocks on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE)—saw a gain of nearly 32 points in a single session, reflecting strong investor confidence. This performance highlights the significant anticipation surrounding the market’s prospects following the FTSE Russell upgrade.
Significant Inflow Expected Post-Upgrade
The FTSE Russell decision is widely seen as a major catalyst for substantial passive capital inflow.
J.P. Morgan estimates that global index funds could pour approximately $1.3 billion into the Vietnamese stock market, corresponding to a 0.34% weighting in the FTSE Emerging Market All Cap Index. Based on current market capitalization, J.P. Morgan projects that around 22 Vietnamese stocks—primarily blue chips with available foreign ownership limits (FOL)—could be added to this index. The Vingroup stocks are a focal point, along with MSN, VJC, GEX, and major securities firms.
NH Securities (NHSV) is even more bullish, estimating that ETF inflows could reach $1.4 billion, with overall active capital potentially adding another substantial $4-5 billion.
Analysts Raise Targets Amid Strong Fundamentals
The positive outlook is underpinned by robust macroeconomic fundamentals and corporate earnings growth, leading major institutions to revise their market targets.
J.P. Morgan has raised its 12-month VN-Index target to 2,000 points in the base case and 2,200 pointsin the optimistic scenario, suggesting a potential 20-30% increase from current levels.
This is supported by Vietnam’s Q3/2025 GDP growth of 8.2% year-over-year and expected average earnings growth of 20% annually for listed companies between 2026 and 2027. Furthermore, a successful subsequent upgrade by MSCI could lead to an additional 10% gain from P/E re-rating.
The current valuation is considered reasonable. J.P. Morgan forecasts the VN-Index to trade at a forward P/E of 15–16.5 times over the next 12 months. While higher than the ASEAN average, this remains below the historical peaks of 2018 and 2021, reflecting strong long-term growth expectations.
Mr. Le Anh Tuan, CEO of Dragon Capital, echoed this sentiment, stating that double-digit GDP growthcould transform market growth from a percentage calculation into a multiple. He emphasized that at the 1,700-point mark, the VN-Index’s P/E of 12.5–13 times—coupled with a projected 18–20% profit growth in 2026—positions the market for a new growth cycle, enhancing its quality and competitiveness on the global financial map.
IPO Wave and Domestic Support
Another major highlight anticipated for 2025–2026 is a significant wave of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), according to NHSV. Large-scale listings from major companies, such as TCBS, VPS, and Gelex Infrastructure, are expected to signal renewed business confidence.
Crucially, domestic investors are forecasted to maintain their role as the market’s primary support foundation, sustaining the upward trajectory. The combination of strong domestic backing, massive institutional inflows, and an improving macro environment confirms Vietnam’s trajectory toward deeper global financial integration.
