Experts warn degrading Iran’s asymmetric threats could take weeks or months—driving oil toward historic disruption levels
MARKET INSIDER – Securing the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of global crude and LNG—has proven far more complex and time-intensive than many investors anticipated, even with overwhelming U.S. naval superiority. Energy and defense analysts say the challenge lies in Iran’s layered, low-cost asymmetric arsenal: coastal anti-ship missiles, thousands of Shahed-style drones, naval mines, fast-attack boats, and mini-submarines capable of striking tankers with little warning in the 21-mile-wide strait.
Robert McNally, former Bush administration energy advisor and president of Rapidan Energy Group, told Business Insider that markets are slowly shedding the “load-bearing assumption” that U.S. military power can swiftly reopen vital chokepoints. “The remaining reservoir of disbelief that a key energy artery could be restricted for this long is going to drain away,” he said, predicting further price escalation in what he called “by far, the largest energy disruption in history.”
Oil prices reflect the growing realism: Brent crude has climbed more than 40% since the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began in late February 2026, recently topping $100 per barrel (briefly nearing $120) after tit-for-tat strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field and Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG terminal. Year-to-date gains stand at 78%, with no quick reversal in sight.
U.S. Central Command has intensified strikes—dropping 5,000-pound bunker busters on hardened coastal missile sites, sinking over 120 Iranian naval vessels, targeting drone facilities, mine storage, and torpedo production, and deploying A-10 attack aircraft against fast boats. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper stated Monday that forces are “zeroed in on dismantling Iran’s decades-old threat to the free flow of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz” and emphasized, “We’re not done.”
Yet analysts caution that meaningful tanker escorts—requiring destroyers to shadow vessels through the strait—can only begin after substantial degradation of Iran’s threats. Retired U.S. Navy officer Bryan Clark of the Hudson Institute explained that the mission would consume most deployed U.S. forces in the region: “It’s going to take at least a dozen destroyers to do the escort mission… They would be all tied up doing that.” Without robust allied participation—European navies have largely declined direct involvement, and Israel’s surface fleet is limited—the U.S. would shoulder the burden alone, potentially supplemented by combat air patrols.
Iran’s ability to sustain attacks with cheap, proliferated drones and small boats mirrors the Houthi campaign in the Red Sea, where Operation Rough Rider took 52 days and over $1 billion to suppress rebel activity—yet commercial shipping has not fully recovered. In Hormuz, the stakes are exponentially higher: no viable alternative routes exist for crude or LNG tankers, and Iran’s deeper arsenal and national resolve could prolong disruptions for months.
For global investors, the takeaway is sobering: the era of assuming rapid U.S.-led restoration of key sea lanes is colliding with modern asymmetric warfare realities. As long as Iran retains credible strike capability, tanker traffic remains paralyzed, insurance premiums soar, and supply uncertainty persists—feeding persistent upward pressure on oil. McNally warned that even partial disruptions now serve as powerful coercion tools in conflict.
The contrarian angle: if CENTCOM’s campaign succeeds in neutralizing layered threats faster than skeptics expect—perhaps aided by coalition escorts or diplomatic backchannels—the oil premium could unwind sharply, delivering relief to inflation-weary economies. But every week the strait stays contested reinforces a new baseline: in today’s threat environment, securing energy arteries is no longer a quick military operation—it’s a grinding, resource-intensive process with profound macroeconomic consequences. Markets are recalibrating accordingly, and the longer the reality gap persists, the higher prices are likely to climb.
