Territory, frozen Russian assets, and long-term security guarantees emerge as the core obstacles shaping the revised U.S. peace framework—and the Kremlin still hasn’t moved.
MARKET INSIDER – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made his most optimistic statement since Russia’s full-scale invasion began, declaring that Ukraine is “closer to peace than ever before.” His comments came as U.S. envoys met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to advance a streamlined U.S.-backed peace plan that has gained surprising momentum in recent weeks. But Zelensky immediately tempered expectations, warning that three “most sensitive, most difficult, most challenging” issues could still derail any breakthrough: territory, frozen Russian assets, and security guarantees.
The current push revolves around a revised 20-point peace framework, down from an initial 28-point draft circulated by Washington last month. That original document—crafted largely between U.S. and Russian officials without Kyiv—prompted backlash for appearing too favorable to Moscow, including provisions that could freeze Ukraine’s military capacity and effectively lock in Russian territorial gains. After intense rounds of talks in Geneva and Florida involving U.S., Ukrainian and European officials, the proposal has been significantly reworked—but not resolved.
Territory: The Hardest Red Line
Zelensky made clear that Kyiv will not recognize Russian control over any additional land beyond what Moscow already occupies. That means no legal concession of the still-contested parts of Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia, by contrast, continues to demand recognition of its claims over Crimea, Donbas, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson—and signals that any ceasefire must begin with Ukrainian withdrawals. Analysts warn this remains the single greatest impasse.
Frozen Russian Assets: Europe Holds the Key
Kyiv sees the hundreds of billions in frozen Russian assets—mostly held in Europe—as essential for reconstruction and as leverage to pressure Moscow. But releasing, repurposing or transferring those funds requires coordinated legal action across the EU. Zelensky stressed that without Europe’s participation, “no financial settlement is possible.” For Russia, losing these assets would amount to one of the largest geopolitical penalties in modern history.
Security Guarantees: The Future Peace Depends on Them
Ukraine insists any agreement must include binding, long-term security guarantees from the U.S. and key European partners through a “Voluntary Coalition.” The latest U.S. proposal reportedly includes a 10-year security guarantee, but Ukraine wants explicit commitments that prevent a future Russian invasion. The strength of these guarantees will determine whether the deal represents peace—or simply an unstable pause.
Zelensky cautioned strongly against settling for what he called a “temporary freeze,” arguing that anything short of a just peace leaves Ukraine vulnerable to a renewed Russian offensive later. Despite the diplomatic momentum surrounding the updated 20-point plan, the Kremlin’s silence on compromise—paired with Putin’s insistence on territorial recognition—underscores how difficult the final stretch may be.
As Moscow weighs its response and U.S. envoys press forward, the world is watching whether this is the beginning of the war’s end—or the moment when irreconcilable red lines bring diplomacy to a standstill.
