Rising crude and escalating rhetoric weigh on stocks as markets struggle to price diplomacy vs. conflict.
Markets
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WTI climbs above $91 as investors balance diplomacy signals against ongoing geopolitical risk.
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Tehran reviews U.S. proposal but rules out negotiations, raising fears of prolonged conflict and market volatility.
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Washington’s proposal targets nuclear rollback, regional influence, and recognition of Israel—but major gaps remain.
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Finance
ECB Stands Ready to Hike Rates Even if Iran War Inflation Spike Proves Temporary, Lagarde Warns
President signals measured policy adjustment possible to protect credibility; 2026 inflation forecast raised to 2.6%
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Futures & Commodities
Oil Drops as Iran Signals Limited Access Through Hormuz
by Daphne Dougnby Daphne DougnCrude falls 5% as Tehran allows “non-hostile” ships passage, easing worst-case supply fears.
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POLITICS
U.S. Sends Iran 15-Point Plan to End War, Trump Says Talks Underway
by Dean Dougnby Dean DougnBackchannel diplomacy intensifies as Washington claims progress—while Tehran denies direct negotiations.
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AWS outages in Bahrain highlight growing risk to global digital infrastructure from Iran-linked attacks.
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Putin reports GDP down 2.1% despite low unemployment, highlighting fragile balance amid global energy volatility.
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Stronger dollar and rising yields pressure bullion as investors unwind positions after record highs.