Market Insider – In his second term, The. US President Donald Trump has completely upended the playbook of conventional foreign policy, trading the structured, decades-old norms of his predecessors for a high-stakes, “intuitive” diplomatic style rooted in his experience as a shrewd business negotiator. This unorthodox approach is not just a stylistic quirk; it is a calculated strategy that has allowed the US to consolidate its global leverage, often by challenging—and sometimes breaking—established protocol.
This “gut diplomacy” has proven remarkably effective in forcing tangible concessions from both long-standing allies and geopolitical rivals. For international business leaders, investors, and analysts, understanding this chaotic but results-oriented method is crucial, as it fundamentally dictates the stability of global alliances and trade relations.
The NATO Squeeze: Achieving What Decades of Presidents Couldn’t
One of Trump’s most significant—and controversial—successes is compelling European NATO allies to increase their defense spending. For years, successive US administrations lobbied in vain for members to meet the benchmark of 2% of GDP.
Trump’s tactic was different: he openly expressed skepticism about the alliance and threatened to withdraw US protection, or even pull out entirely, if the financial burden wasn’t shared. This intense pressure, coupled with renewed anxieties over the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to a major shift. The 32 NATO members have not only moved toward the 2% standard but, at a June summit, ambitiously set a new collective goal of reaching 5% of GDP by 2035, a level that no member, including the US, currently meets. This demonstrates Trump’s capacity to translate perceived unfairness into actionable financial commitment from allies.
Unilateral Peacemaking: The Gaza Blueprint
In the Middle East, Trump has exhibited a striking degree of flexibility in pursuing an end to the two-year-long Gaza conflict. Shifting from strong public support for Israel to an aggressive push for a ceasefire, he applied simultaneous pressure on multiple fronts: using his personal influence with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and leveraging Arab partners like Qatar and Egypt to push Hamas toward an agreement.
Instead of traditional, patient negotiation, Trump’s hallmark move was to announce a 20-point peace planbefore consensus was fully reached, effectively forcing both Israel and Hamas to scramble to make the proposed ceasefire a reality. This approach delivered a fragile but successful Phase One agreement that secured the release of hostages. According to former Mexican Foreign Minister Jorge Castaneda, this is the most significant foreign policy achievement of Trump’s term to date, even as the prospect of a long-term, comprehensive peace remains uncertain.
The Trade Hammer: Tariffs as a Bargaining Chip with China
The Trump administration’s trade relationship with China is a masterclass in this intuitive, fluid negotiation style. When Beijing recently announced export restrictions on rare earth minerals, Trump immediately countered by threatening a 100% tariff increase on Chinese goods starting November 1.
Crucially, however, he paired this hardball tactic with conciliatory language, signaling that both sides needed to make concessions. This flexibility paid off: officials from both countries met recently in Malaysia and established a framework where the US would halt the tariff increase, and China would temporarily suspend the implementation of its rare earth export limits for a year. This demonstrates how Trump views tariffs not as an end but as a powerful, disposable negotiating tool to maintain US leverage. Trump also claims to have used the threat of tariffs to help broker ceasefires in border conflicts between Pakistan and India, and Cambodia and Thailand.
The Double-Edged Sword: Unpredictability vs. Stability
The anecdotal evidence of this unconventional style is compelling. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahimhighlighted Trump’s willingness to “break the rules” after the President unexpectedly invited him to ride in the heavily secured motorcade “Beast” from the Kuala Lumpur airport. Ibrahim, who initially declined due to security protocols, ultimately acquiesced, later commenting: “The world needs leaders who aggressively push for peace, and to achieve that, you have to break some rules, as you did today.”
However, this reliance on instinct comes with a significant downside. Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, notes that this unpredictability can erode international trust in the stability of US policy. Experts warn that constantly changing positions based on “gut feeling” risks making Washington reactive rather than strategic.
Ned Price, a former State Department spokesperson, suggests that while Trump’s foreign policy is highly contested, its successful elements—the political instinct and willingness to challenge the status quo—cannot be ignored. The challenge for future administrations, according to Price, will be to successfully blend Trump’s political intuition with clear principles and objectives to build a durable, coherent, and strategically beneficial US foreign policy.
